New Reuters/Ipsos poll has Clinton up 6% points

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.27_.16__.pdf

But if you take a closer look at the poll, what you will find is tha1t Democrats represent 53% of this particular poll and Republicans represent 40% of this polls. Independents represent 15% of the poll. What is seen clearly again is that Trump’s lead amongst Independents continues to remain huge at about 9% in the head-to-head and 7% in the 4-way which will be what is on the ballot. Is Clinton actually up 6% right now? It is actually highly doubtful considering how weighted the poll was. It is actually very likely that Trump has a slight edge if not a commanding lead as of the moment.

It is important to take into account how the party affiliates are weighted. Independents continue to remain under-represented in the polls.

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About newenglandsun

A student. Male. Passionate. Easily offended. Child-like wonderer. Growing in faith, messing up daily.
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2 Responses to New Reuters/Ipsos poll has Clinton up 6% points

  1. Salvageable says:

    I’m dubious of the polls for several reasons. One is that I usually don’t take the time to respond to polls, but in the last election cycle I did so every time, and I know that I skewed the results. Lots of people called once they knew I would answer their questions, so my point of view was overrepresented. Second, I have friends who claim that they always lie to polltakers. Third, in the primaries Trump showed an ability to bring people into the voting booth who do not usually vote. I think we will see that again in November. J.

    Like

    • Yes. Very interesting. I think this is quite right. In fact, the L.A. Times has continued to remain an outlier showing Trump consistently ahead…
      I have no idea what to think any more these days.

      Like

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