Were the polls wrong? AKA, The Clinton-media cohorts can’t do math!

It is well known that the United States of America is not an actual democracy. We call it a democracy since we vote. However, a democracy is a “rule by the people”. That’d be more like “the angry mob” or “the peaceful mob”. Anarchism is actually what “true” democracy is. The United States though is a Presidential Federalist Republic. This means the states rule. The states guided by the vote of the people rule.

In other words, the presidential election is all about the electoral college. If one notes and pays attention to the polling path put out by Nate Silver what the polls were showing was that the general election was not necessarily reflective of how the electoral college would swing this year. Consistently, and especially one night before the election, Nate Silver showed Clinton with a very strong chance of winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college (a chance of over 10 percent!).

Nate Silver ended up botching the primaries due to severely underestimating Trump’s performance but he doubled-down on the Presidential Election and actually received much flak for it.

However, this only shows what the pollsters were missing. Not whether they were wrong or not. What they were missing was a decent way to measure this election. The night before the election, I saw the RCP average was at 272-266 in favor of Clinton (in the electoral college). I decided to investigate the polling trends. What we saw was Donald Trump emerging with his first lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The only polls that were off was how he was doing in Wisconsin (Clinton +8, Clinton +6 in the last two polls taken there). But those were all taken one week before election night and since there was much more stuff going on throughout, we failed to gain a good sight of what to expect in Wisconsin. Instead, Wisconsin, being a rust-belt state, needed to be investigated further by looking at the trends in Pennsylvania and in Michigan.

But I was able to confidently give both Michigan and Pennsylvania to Trump (Michigan still being the only up-for-grabs state right now and likely will fall to Donald Trump). That actually moved him into a 302-236 electoral college vote lead so I was confident Trump would gather 300 electoral college votes. However, the popular vote was a major question mark.

There were contradictory polls released before election day in respect to the general election. What they indicated to me was that the popular vote would be much more closer than the electoral college. That this particular election would come down to the electoral college. This is why the pollsters failed to predict accurately whether Trump would win last night. It wasn’t so much because the polls which had Trump within the margin of error in many battlegrounds or with a slight lead or showed Clinton down within a margin of error were necessarily pointing incorrectly. Most Trump supporters and those stating the polls were “wrong” actually missed a) the trends, and b) the margin of error. Which is why I never doubted Trump’s possibility of winning the electoral college and hence the election. I had been saying in late Spring and early Summer to my family, “Are you excited for Trump to be our next President?” and they thought I was joking or practicing Trump-bashing.

However, it was obvious to many people who investigated more-so the polling trends within the electoral college that Trump would do as well as he did tonight. In fact, what he did was really not up to a “silent majority” at all but what was being indicated by the polls all along.

What happened, or appeared to happen, is that the Clinton-supporters simply could not calculate the map or they misunderstood the way our electoral college works and so that is why we are going to see Trump take Michigan when the votes are done being counted securing him 306-232 electoral college votes and lose the popular vote. The Trump campaign though knew this about math and the electoral college. Trump didn’t waste time in California. He invested time in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc. He spent his time trying to sweep what the polls were indicating he was in the margin of error of knowing that when it came down to voter turnout, it would be this that did it.

So now we have President Elect Donald J. Trump by Divine Right. We ought to pray for him that God may give him grace and wisdom to lead our country, bring peace and tranquility to it, in time of fear, anxiety, and division.

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About newenglandsun

A student. Male. Passionate. Easily offended. Child-like wonderer. Growing in faith, messing up daily.
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